On 20 February 2026, in Washington, the US Supreme Court ruled that the tariffs imposed the previous year by the Trump administration under the IEEPA (International Emergency Economic Powers Act) were unlawful. Is this a victory? For a few hours, it seemed so. Then the White House issued an executive order: the tariffs are back, this time based on Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. An additional 10% tariff, valid until 24 July 2026. Almost simultaneously, on social media, the President hinted at a future increase to 15%.
It seems like a trade law case. It is. But it is also, and above all, a story about shoes.
Because every pair that leaves an Italian, Indonesian, Vietnamese or Chinese container bound for an American port depends, today, on how that line of customs code is interpreted by the official on duty. And the consequences are already measurable. According to Assocalzaturifici, 55% of Italian operators exporting to the United States consider the effects of the tariffs to be ‘significant’, with one in five companies facing serious difficulties. Exports to the US, after rising by 6% in the first half of 2025, fell by 1.9% in the second half of the year.
NIKE: PRICES UP, FACTORIES OUT OF CHINA. The impact on the Beaverton giant is measured in hard figures. One billion dollars in additional costs in 2026 alone, according to CFO Matthew Friend’s statement during the earnings call on 26 June. One and a half billion in the most recent estimates reported by CFO Dive and Motley Fool. Thirty per cent: that is how much the share price has fallen since the start of the year. The gross margin has fallen by 320 basis points.
The response from the group led by CEO Elliott Hill consists of four moves, and none are merely cosmetic: optimising the production mix by reducing the Chinese share from the current 16% to a high single-digit figure by the end of the financial year; renegotiating with suppliers and retailers; raising US retail prices by $5–$10 per pair; and cutting corporate costs. The estimated impact on the annual gross margin will be limited to 75 basis points, says Friend. But sourcing for the world’s largest sports brand will, in practice, never be the same again. Ralph Lauren and Canada Goose are implementing similar moves.
And whilst Nike is repositioning itself, someone else is standing ready.
STELLA, THE OPPOSITE OF A RETREAT. Stella International, the Hong Kong-based giant in footwear and leather goods manufacturing for major global brands, closed the first quarter of 2026 with revenues of $337.4 million (+1.9%) and announced a three-year plan for 2026–2028 that will see three new factories come on stream: in Indonesia, Bangladesh and Vietnam. Together with the factory already operational in Solo, the aim is to add around 20 million pairs of annual capacity. “2026 is a crucial year for investment,” said Chairman Lawrence Chen. Demand from sports brands and the high-end fashion segment remains robust, according to CEO Chi Lo-Jen.
Take a close look at this point: whilst tariffs are pushing some to reduce their exposure to Asia, others are strengthening it by diversifying.
REGIONALISATION, NOT DEGLOBALISATION. There is a term that crops up in every analysis of 2026 and needs to be properly understood: reshoring. It does not mean that all factories are returning home: it would be naive to think so. It means that the Just-in-Time model is giving way to a Just-in-Case model, in which proximity, resilience and supply chain control matter more than unit cost. For North American manufacturers, it means operating within a tri-national hub comprising the United States, Canada and Mexico. The ‘China Plus One’ strategy is evolving into a ‘Domestic-First’ approach for supply chains deemed critical.
Then there is the technological aspect, which is what is really shifting the balance. Industry 4.0 automation is levelling the labour cost gap that has sustained half a century of offshoring. An industrial robot, amortised over its useful life, often costs less today than the annual wage of an offshore worker. Add the pressure of carbon taxes and mandatory reporting of Scope 3 emissions, and it is clear why the calculation of Total Cost of Ownership weighs differently than it did ten years ago.
THE CONSUMER PAYS, BUT CHOOSES. Meanwhile, the US market shows how demand is readjusting. According to Circana data, the first quarter of 2026 closed at +1% in value, but with falling volumes. The average price is rising, driven by the performance segment (+5% in dollars, with running seeing double-digit growth). Sandals, mules and clogs are holding their own. Boots are plummeting. “Categories linked to everyday use, physical activity and casual comfort are best positioned to capture spending,” observes Beth Goldstein, footwear advisor at Circana. Translated for manufacturers: Americans are buying fewer pairs, but each pair costs more. They will pay the extra $5–10 charged by Nike, but with greater selectivity.
Writing today about the international footwear trade means writing about a map that is being redrawn as we look at it. The Supreme Court decides, the White House rewrites, a CFO in Beaverton announces, a chairman in Hong Kong inaugurates, a robot in Pennsylvania replaces a worker in Guangdong. And in the midst of it all, the Italian footwear industry — with a turnover of €14.5 billion, 73,000 employees and 85% of production exported, according to data from Assocalzaturifici — holds its breath. Resilience, they say. Perhaps. Or simply, the only viable path when the ground is shaking.
