The usual semi-annual survey by the World Footwear Experts Panel (an initiative of APICCAPS – Portuguese Footwear, Components and Leather Goods Manufacturers’ Association) on the world footwear market, and covering the second half of 2024, shows a picture of great variability but with a generally positive outlook.The latest statistics on footwear trade for the third quarter of 2024 highlights a moderate growth in key markets offset by declines in others. Despite these uneven conditions, the overall outlook remains positive. Most respondents anticipate growth in footwear sales volumes and prices, while business health is expected to stay robust. Employment levels are also projected to stabilize, reflecting confidence in the sector’s resilience.

Over the next three years, the significance of digital retail channels in footwear sales is expected to further expand. The cost of merchandise and raw materials continues to be identified by the panel of experts as the primary challenge faced by the footwear industry in the next months, along with competition in domestic markets.

In this edition of the survey, the experts were asked about their opinions on which region is most likely to experience the fastest growth in footwear production over the next five years: 66.4% of respondents selected Asia as their answer. Finally, when asked about the impact of 3D printing on the footwear industry, experts noted that this technology is expected to have a particularly significant effect on prototyping processes.

FOCUS ON RETAIL

Overall, there is a positive outlook regarding retail price evolution over the next six months, with most respondents expecting growth or stability rather than decline. The largest share of respondents (36.4%) anticipates moderate growth (1.5% to 5%), reflecting cautious optimism. Additionally, 24.3% expect strong growth (5% to 20%), and 16.8% foresee very strong growth (over 20%). A share of 14% anticipates stable prices for the period (-1.5% to 1.5%). Combined, these groups account for more than 91% of the sample, highlighting significant confidence among participants. In contrast, only 8.4% anticipate a moderate decline (-1.5% to -5%), and no respondents predict a strong or very strong fall.

OUTLOOK ON FOOTWEAR QUANTITIES SOLD

Perspectives on the evolution of the quantity of footwear sold by country are likewise clearly positive, although slightly less upbeat: 65.4% of respondents expect quantity to grow – almost 50% (49.5%) even strongly or very strongly – and 22.4% to stabilize, while 12.1% forecast it will fall. No respondents expect a very strong fall. The simultaneous increase in quantity and prices should result in a strong sales performance.

RETAIL CHANNELS

Over half of respondents anticipate an increase in the share of digital retail channels over the next three years, with slightly stronger prospects for own-brand online stores compared to multi-brand or general online sellers. While forecasts for physical stores are more moderate, they remain positive. Among these, large-scale retail is expected to perform best, with 48% of respondents predicting an increase in its importance. Expectations for own-brand and multi-brand physical retail stores are considerably weaker but still more optimistic than for other unspecified retail channels.

FOOTWEAR CONSUMPTION TO INCREASE BY 8.4% IN 2025

Globally, experts anticipate a 8.4% increase in footwear consumption in 2025. If these forecasts hold true, consumption is expected to grow significantly in Oceania (+25%), follone by Africa (+13.3%), Asia (+9.2%) and North America (+8.3%). More modest increases are projected for South America (+3.2%) and Europe (+0.5%).

ASIA TO PRESENT THE FASTEST GROWTH IN FOOTWEAR PRODUCTION

When asked which region they expect to experience the fastest growth in footwear production over the next five years, 66.4% of respondents overwhelmingly identified Asia as the leading region. This highlights Asia’s continued dominance in the global footwear manufacturing industry, driven by factors such as establishedproduction infrastructure, cost advantages, and access to raw materials and skilled labor. Africa ranks a distant second with 17.8% of responses, reflecting its potential as an emerging hub for footwear production, likely due to improving industrial capacities and growing investments in the region. Europe (9.3%), South America (3.7%) and North America (2.8%) lag significantly, signaling that these regions may face challenges in expanding production at a competitive pace.

3D PRINTING

3D printing is expected to have a significant impact on prototyping processes within the footwear industry. A majority of respondents (52.2%) highlight its use in prototyping components such as soles or heels, while 43.9% recognize its importance in prototyping production tools like molds or lasts. Additionally, 35.5% of respondents foresee the application of this technology in prototyping entire footwear products. These findings indicate that 3D printing is primarily valued for its ability to streamline design processes, reduce lead times, and enhance product development efficiency, particularly in the early stages of production.